After a disappointing 1-2 week, my total for the shortened season if picking is 5-4. Still over .500 but not great. Here are my picks for week 12.
NY Jets (6-5) at Washington (4-7) +3
The Jets are coming off a rather unconvincing victory over the Buffalo Bills while Washington has just won a gritty game in Seattle where they trailed by 10 in the 4th quarter. Washington is getting healthier while they are showing they are not going to completely quit on their coach like it seemed previously. Maybe the individuals on the team are playing for roster spots next season. Sometimes just the idea of having a job is motivation enough for some guys. The Jets have been absolutely atrocious traveling this season albeit with their only win a dominating performance at Buffalo. Washington has been playing their opponents well in their building not losing by more than one score in any of their home loses. I like the +3 here as the Jets defense may have to pitch a shutout of they are going to win this game. Washington does one thing exceedingly well and that's rush the quarterback. Look for Sanchez to be running for his life early and if the Jets can't get any running game going, it might even be a long day. I'm taking Washington as home dogs and they might even win the game outright.
Pick: Redskins
Oakland (7-4) at Miami (3-8) -3.5
The Dolphins are hosting the Raiders who are flying across the country to play a 1 o'clock game. Normally, this is never a good thing for the west coast team. I don't think this will be a good thing for the Raiders. Oaktown had a lot of trouble putting away a Bears team lead by Caleb Haine in their own building last week and had to rely on the leg of Seabass to win that game. Miami is a team that is playing more like a playoff contender, than a former Andrew Luck contender. One could make a case that the Dolphins could or should be 7-4 with their late game losses. Their defense has been flying around of late and Matt Moore has actually been playing like a useful NFL quarterback. They have weapons on offense with Marshall, Bess and Fasano. I don't think the Raiders are a team that's ready to cross the country and beat a team that's playing good football. It's weird picking a 3-8 team to cover against a 7-4 team but that's exactly what I'm doing today.
Pick: Dolphins
Detroit (7-4) at New Orleans (8-3) -9
The Saints are rolling right now. They are scoring over 40 points per game in their building and they're playing a Lions defense without the suspended Suh. It doesn't really matter who comes in to play them right now. Drew Brees is going to pick them apart and it's not going to change with Detroit. The Lions offense will score points, but they won't come within 20 points of the Saints offense. I think this is an easy one, even with the -9.
Pick: Saints
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Monday, November 28, 2011
Giants Preview - At New Orleans
The Giants (6-4) are coming off a bad loss to the Eagles. They did not look like a very good football team in the process. The Saints (7-3) are coming off their bye week giving Sean Payton plenty of time to gameplan against the Giants defense, specifically, the zone defense. In order for the Giants to be successful tonight, they need to abandon the zone defensive scheme, trust some of their guys in man coverage and get to Brees with the pass rush. It's exactly how the Rams controlled them with basically a practice squad secondary. The problem is that if you give Drew Brees any time, he will find windows and beat you. The Saints average over 30 per game at home so if the Giants hold them to anywhere near that, I would consider it successful.
Offensively, the Giants have to block better for Eli and the running game. Diehl is moving back to left tackle, which might be a good thing, while Kevin Boothe will start at left guard, the third different position on the line he has started this season. Boothe is serviceable but it does make you miss Rich Seubert from a Giant fan's perspective. The Saints defense is give up a league worst 5.2 yards per rush this season so if the Giants can't get the running game going then we know there are major issues there. The Giants should utilize the backup running back Da'Rel Scott. He's got lots of speed and can cause major problems when he's put in space. The Giants will be in need of an extra weapon with Mario Manningham inactive with a knee injury. The Saints can also get beat up the seems which means that Ballard can be useful. He's been up and down but needs to avoid the killer drops. I feel like the Giants can make this a game but will ultimately come up short in a tough match up in a tough building. Saints 31 - Giants 28
Offensively, the Giants have to block better for Eli and the running game. Diehl is moving back to left tackle, which might be a good thing, while Kevin Boothe will start at left guard, the third different position on the line he has started this season. Boothe is serviceable but it does make you miss Rich Seubert from a Giant fan's perspective. The Saints defense is give up a league worst 5.2 yards per rush this season so if the Giants can't get the running game going then we know there are major issues there. The Giants should utilize the backup running back Da'Rel Scott. He's got lots of speed and can cause major problems when he's put in space. The Giants will be in need of an extra weapon with Mario Manningham inactive with a knee injury. The Saints can also get beat up the seems which means that Ballard can be useful. He's been up and down but needs to avoid the killer drops. I feel like the Giants can make this a game but will ultimately come up short in a tough match up in a tough building. Saints 31 - Giants 28
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Week 12 Picks
After a 3-0 week brings my shortened season's total to 4-2. Here are a few picks for week 12:
Cleveland (4-6) at Cincinnati (6-4) (-7)
Cincinnati comes in off two tough losses to two of the best teams in the AFC. While the Bengals didn't win, they did show they can play with the better teams. Cleveland is miserable right now with a record of 2-5 in their last 7 games, the only wins being really ugly affairs. I'm expecting Cincy to come out angry about the two game losing streak but confident knowing they can play with the best. Cleveland travels poorly as well, only 1-3 on the road this year, the only win being at the Colts. The Cleveland offense will not be able to move the ball against this Cincinnati defense. Peyton Hillis says he's going to play but he hasn't been on a field in weeks and could easily be limping off in the 1st half. I don't think the Cleveland defense can handle Cendric Benson but may give some problems to Andy Dalton as they have the #1 pass defense in the NFL. I don't think that pass defense will be enough as ultimately Cincinnati will win somewhere around 24-3.
Pick: Cincinnati -7
New England (7-3) at Philadelphia (4-6) (+3.5)
The Patriots have gotten over their hiccup and are playing excellent football. The two headed monster at tight end of Gronkowski and Hernandez are difficult to deal with for any defense and Brady goes to them often. The Eagles are still very weak at linebacker and will not be able to slow these two down. The Eagles are coming off their win against an extremely disappointing Giants team. Vince Young is still starting, Maclin is still out. The Patriots give up a boat load of yards but do not give up as many points. They also have a knack of intercepting the ball in the red zone while Philly has had a knack of turning the ball over in the red zone. I don't think this game will be close. New England will win handily with a score around 35-14.
Pick: New England -3.5
Tampa Bay (4-6) at Tennessee (5-5) (-3.5)
Tampa Bay is in trouble right now. They are a desperate team but are coming off a strong effort at Green Bay. Josh Freeman is extremely hard to predict but has taken advantage of questionable defenses, and Tennessee has a questionable defense. Tampa Bay is also dealing with the fact that they are coming in with one of the worst defenses in the NFL giving up almost 400 yards per game and over 30 points per in their past 6 games. Good thing for Tampa is that Tennessee is coming in with one of the worst offenses in the league. Both teams need the win but Tampa Bay should be playing like a team with their season on the line. I believe this game will be played very close to the vest, neither team will want to make the huge mistake. I can't believe I've written a preview for a Tennessee game and Chris Johnson hasn't come to mind until now. That's how much of a non-factor he's been this season. Straight up, it's a tough pick but I like the -3.5 for the road dog. Tennessee could win but I don't see them winning by more than a field goal.
Pick: Tampa Bay +3.5
To recap, picks are Cincy -7, New England -3.5, Tampa Bay +3.5
Thank you and enjoy your NFL sunday
Cleveland (4-6) at Cincinnati (6-4) (-7)
Cincinnati comes in off two tough losses to two of the best teams in the AFC. While the Bengals didn't win, they did show they can play with the better teams. Cleveland is miserable right now with a record of 2-5 in their last 7 games, the only wins being really ugly affairs. I'm expecting Cincy to come out angry about the two game losing streak but confident knowing they can play with the best. Cleveland travels poorly as well, only 1-3 on the road this year, the only win being at the Colts. The Cleveland offense will not be able to move the ball against this Cincinnati defense. Peyton Hillis says he's going to play but he hasn't been on a field in weeks and could easily be limping off in the 1st half. I don't think the Cleveland defense can handle Cendric Benson but may give some problems to Andy Dalton as they have the #1 pass defense in the NFL. I don't think that pass defense will be enough as ultimately Cincinnati will win somewhere around 24-3.
Pick: Cincinnati -7
New England (7-3) at Philadelphia (4-6) (+3.5)
The Patriots have gotten over their hiccup and are playing excellent football. The two headed monster at tight end of Gronkowski and Hernandez are difficult to deal with for any defense and Brady goes to them often. The Eagles are still very weak at linebacker and will not be able to slow these two down. The Eagles are coming off their win against an extremely disappointing Giants team. Vince Young is still starting, Maclin is still out. The Patriots give up a boat load of yards but do not give up as many points. They also have a knack of intercepting the ball in the red zone while Philly has had a knack of turning the ball over in the red zone. I don't think this game will be close. New England will win handily with a score around 35-14.
Pick: New England -3.5
Tampa Bay (4-6) at Tennessee (5-5) (-3.5)
Tampa Bay is in trouble right now. They are a desperate team but are coming off a strong effort at Green Bay. Josh Freeman is extremely hard to predict but has taken advantage of questionable defenses, and Tennessee has a questionable defense. Tampa Bay is also dealing with the fact that they are coming in with one of the worst defenses in the NFL giving up almost 400 yards per game and over 30 points per in their past 6 games. Good thing for Tampa is that Tennessee is coming in with one of the worst offenses in the league. Both teams need the win but Tampa Bay should be playing like a team with their season on the line. I believe this game will be played very close to the vest, neither team will want to make the huge mistake. I can't believe I've written a preview for a Tennessee game and Chris Johnson hasn't come to mind until now. That's how much of a non-factor he's been this season. Straight up, it's a tough pick but I like the -3.5 for the road dog. Tennessee could win but I don't see them winning by more than a field goal.
Pick: Tampa Bay +3.5
To recap, picks are Cincy -7, New England -3.5, Tampa Bay +3.5
Thank you and enjoy your NFL sunday
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Giants Preview
The Eagles (3-6) are coming into Giants Stadium (I refuse to call it anything else) coming off two straight bad loses, the 2nd of which a devastating loss to a putrid Cardinals team in their own building. The Giants (6-3) are coming off a tough but well played loss in San Francisco. No Vick. No Maclin. I expect the Giants to keep Webster locked on Jackson with some help from Phillips over the top on passing downs. The Eagles should be trying to get the ball into McCoy's hands 30+ times, either on the ground or through the air. Andy Reid will probably not want to put the fate of the game on Vince Young's shoulders. I'm interested to see what the Giants will get out of rookie linebacker Mark Herzlich. The man has overcome more than most in his life and to see him get his first start on defense is really special. If Prince plays, the Giants will be able to keep Rolle at safety on 3 receiver sets which the Eagles will run McCoy from often. Rolle might even just act like a spy on McCoy the entire game. Rolle has impressed, especially over the last couple weeks, playing sideline to sideline. I really have no idea what to expect from VY. The Giants should hit him hard and often. They can force him into a lot of mistakes but we really don't know how much he'll run. That could be a potential issue if he runs a lot. Bottom line is if the Giants execute, they will be able to control the Eagles.
Offensively, the Giants will be without Bradshaw for a 3rd straight week. Everyone else is playing. The Eagles will most likely double Nicks leaving single coverage on Manningham and Cruz for most of the game. Cruz has showed he can get separation and this game should be more of the same as the Eagles are without Rodgers-Cromartie. I can see Eli utilizing Ballard more than last week to expose the Eagles linebackers. Regarding Jacobs, who knows at this point. He could go for 80+ or under 30. If he can actually catch the ball out of the backfield, he could even have a big day. Eli will throw a lot, especially if the running game continues to struggle. After it's all said and done, I believe the Giants will come out on top with Eli orchestrating a couple late drives to put the game away. Final score in the 31-17 range.
Offensively, the Giants will be without Bradshaw for a 3rd straight week. Everyone else is playing. The Eagles will most likely double Nicks leaving single coverage on Manningham and Cruz for most of the game. Cruz has showed he can get separation and this game should be more of the same as the Eagles are without Rodgers-Cromartie. I can see Eli utilizing Ballard more than last week to expose the Eagles linebackers. Regarding Jacobs, who knows at this point. He could go for 80+ or under 30. If he can actually catch the ball out of the backfield, he could even have a big day. Eli will throw a lot, especially if the running game continues to struggle. After it's all said and done, I believe the Giants will come out on top with Eli orchestrating a couple late drives to put the game away. Final score in the 31-17 range.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
NFL Picks Week 11
I hope you've had a good week. It's time to make some picks.
San Diego (4-5) at Chicago (6-3) -3.5
The Chargers come into this game all sorts of banged up. They have 3 OL starters on the shelf as well as many others. The extra time off did not help them. Rivers has zero protection and the Bears are coming in hot having just dismantled the Lions. The Bears D is playing old school, hit you in the mouth football and the Chargers can't handle that. If anyone doesn't believe that Jay Cutler tough after last week, then I don't know what to tell you. Suh tried to take his head clean off and he popped up, no helmet, and got in his face. One of the stupider things you can do in the league, but showed massive cajones. I'm still not a big fan, but I respect him a little more than most. I don't think this game will be a classic blow out, but expect the Bears to extend a lead late in the game with their superior defense and special teams. Easy cover for the Bears winning in the vicinity of 27-10.
Pick: Bears
Buffalo (5-4) at Miami (2-7) -1.5
I'm not about to make Miami a good team. But they're certainly better than their record says they are. They've been in most of the games they've lost and have played a couple solid games in a row here. The Bills come in a team in peril. They've been blown out two weeks in a row and it doesn't look like much is going right at the moment. I see the Dolphins playing ball control offense, utilizing Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas (for the fantasy folks out there, Thomas could be a nice addition to any team down the stretch if he's available). Miami should be able to bottle up Fred Jackson and get pressure on Fitzpatrick with Wake. The Fins are two late 4th quarter collapses away from 4 wins in a row. I expect them to cover comfortably at home where they've actually been dreadful in the past year and a half. 21-13.
Pick: Dolphins
Oakland (5-4) at Minnesota (2-7) pick em
I thought this was an interesting straight up pick. Oakland is clearly the better team and Palmer is starting to get into a groove, especially with 1st year player Denarius Moore. Michael Bush has filled in well with McFadden out. Even if Seymour doesn't play, I think the Raiders will control this game. Minnesota is a mess. They do have Peterson, but I don't think that's going to be enough for them to get a favorable result. The Raiders have traveled well this year and expect that to continue with a 28-7 victory.
Pick: Oakland
San Diego (4-5) at Chicago (6-3) -3.5
The Chargers come into this game all sorts of banged up. They have 3 OL starters on the shelf as well as many others. The extra time off did not help them. Rivers has zero protection and the Bears are coming in hot having just dismantled the Lions. The Bears D is playing old school, hit you in the mouth football and the Chargers can't handle that. If anyone doesn't believe that Jay Cutler tough after last week, then I don't know what to tell you. Suh tried to take his head clean off and he popped up, no helmet, and got in his face. One of the stupider things you can do in the league, but showed massive cajones. I'm still not a big fan, but I respect him a little more than most. I don't think this game will be a classic blow out, but expect the Bears to extend a lead late in the game with their superior defense and special teams. Easy cover for the Bears winning in the vicinity of 27-10.
Pick: Bears
Buffalo (5-4) at Miami (2-7) -1.5
I'm not about to make Miami a good team. But they're certainly better than their record says they are. They've been in most of the games they've lost and have played a couple solid games in a row here. The Bills come in a team in peril. They've been blown out two weeks in a row and it doesn't look like much is going right at the moment. I see the Dolphins playing ball control offense, utilizing Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas (for the fantasy folks out there, Thomas could be a nice addition to any team down the stretch if he's available). Miami should be able to bottle up Fred Jackson and get pressure on Fitzpatrick with Wake. The Fins are two late 4th quarter collapses away from 4 wins in a row. I expect them to cover comfortably at home where they've actually been dreadful in the past year and a half. 21-13.
Pick: Dolphins
Oakland (5-4) at Minnesota (2-7) pick em
I thought this was an interesting straight up pick. Oakland is clearly the better team and Palmer is starting to get into a groove, especially with 1st year player Denarius Moore. Michael Bush has filled in well with McFadden out. Even if Seymour doesn't play, I think the Raiders will control this game. Minnesota is a mess. They do have Peterson, but I don't think that's going to be enough for them to get a favorable result. The Raiders have traveled well this year and expect that to continue with a 28-7 victory.
Pick: Oakland
Sunday, November 13, 2011
ahh shucks
1-2 in my first week, this week 10 in the NFL season making some picks. The 49ers are beatable. Execution and critical play calling on any one of 5 plays cost the Giants that game. The Eagles are finished. They are a defeated team. The only thing that will make this day better now is Parks and Rec. Goodnight.
No Prince - Giants Preview
Well it doesn't look like Prince Amukamara is going to be playing. He traveled with the team, but not likely to play. That means Rolle will remain on the slot receiver on throwing downs. The 49ers may not use many 3 wideout sets, especially on 1st and 2nd down as they like to utilize the tackle-eligible players. This shouldn't effect what the Giants want to do on run defense as Rolle can remain in the safety position creeping as the 8th or even 9th player in the box along with Deon Grant. Tackling Frank Gore will be the main goal of the Giants defense. Keep the ball in Alex Smith's hands. Force him to beat you.
Offensively it is still not known if Nicks and Manningham are playing. They are still game time decisions. Regardless I expect the Giants to come out throwing. If they can put up some early points they can force the 49ers to play catch up, something they haven't had to do this year. If Jacobs runs north-south he can probably get somewhere between 60-80 yards. If he dances and prances, he won't crack 30. This will be another game on the shoulders of Eli Manning and he should be throwing anywhere between 35-40 times.
Offensively it is still not known if Nicks and Manningham are playing. They are still game time decisions. Regardless I expect the Giants to come out throwing. If they can put up some early points they can force the 49ers to play catch up, something they haven't had to do this year. If Jacobs runs north-south he can probably get somewhere between 60-80 yards. If he dances and prances, he won't crack 30. This will be another game on the shoulders of Eli Manning and he should be throwing anywhere between 35-40 times.
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